Empire State Today

Recent developments in New York politics suggest a potential shift in the state's longstanding Democratic dominance. The 2024 presidential election saw former President Donald Trump achieve notable gains in New York, securing 44% of the vote, a significant increase from his previous campaigns. This performance was particularly striking given that New York has not elected a Republican to statewide office since Governor George Pataki's tenure ended nearly two decades ago.

Trump's increased support came notably from New York City, where he garnered more votes than any Republican presidential candidate since 1988. In Queens, Trump's birthplace, he experienced his largest growth in voter support. This comes after a close gubernatorial race in 2022, where Republican nominee Lee Zeldin lost to incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul by less than six percentage points, marking the narrowest margin for a Democrat in such a race since 1982.

Despite these Republican advances, many analysts maintain that New York will remain a Democratic stronghold. However, shifts in voter registration suggest possible changes on the horizon. Between 2020 and 2024, Democratic enrollment fell by about 4%, while GOP registration grew by approximately 3%, and unaffiliated voters increased by 13%.

Governor Hochul faces declining approval ratings amid criticism over her congestion pricing plan and past political positions. A Siena College poll revealed only 34% of New Yorkers view her favorably, compared to Trump's 39%. Prominent Democrats have expressed concerns about Hochul's potential impact on future elections, with some considering challenging her for the party nomination.

New York's fusion voting system allows minor parties significant influence as potential kingmakers. The Working Families Party (WFP), which previously supported Hochul's primary challenger before reluctantly endorsing her general candidacy, may not back her again.

The state's political landscape remains dynamic as Republicans aim to capitalize on recent successes. Observers are closely monitoring these developments to gauge whether New York is truly experiencing a Republican resurgence.