One year from now, New York Governor Kathy Hochul is expected to face a challenging Democratic primary. Recent polling and political developments suggest she may not be in a strong position. Despite the advantages of incumbency and her party’s significant enrollment edge, Hochul appears vulnerable.
New York is traditionally a Democratic state, with no Republican winning statewide since George Pataki’s third gubernatorial term in 2002. However, data indicates that many New Yorkers prefer a different governor. A recent Siena College poll shows Hochul’s favorability among independents is low, and even among Democrats, her standing is not impressive.
Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado has announced his intention to challenge Hochul in 2026. Representative Ritchie Torres is another potential contender. Both Delgado and Torres have better favorable-to-unfavorable ratings than Hochul according to the Siena poll. In a hypothetical three-way primary with Delgado and Torres, Hochul leads but does not reach 50 percent support.
This situation suggests that Hochul might not have an easy path to reelection.
